COVID-19 may have longer incubation period than previously thought

Chinese scientists have come up with a new estimate for the median incubation period of COVID -19, which is around 7.76 days.

By: Jahnavi Sarma | | Updated: August 10, 2020 8:57 am

Researchers calculated that the median incubation period was 7.75 days, with 10 per cent of patients showing an incubation period of 14.28 days.

COVID-19 cases today stand at 19,187,943 and the death toll is 716,075. In India too the situation is critical with 21,53,010 confirmed cases and 42,518 dead. This disease is predictably unpredictable, and experts are often left scratching their heads each time it throws a new challenge at them. There are a wide range of symptoms, complications and modes of transmission. To contain the spread of the virus, governments have laid down certain guidelines like social distancing, wearing a face mask and frequent washing of hands. There are many asymptomatic carriers of this virus, which makes it essential for everyone to follow these guideline. Self-isolation is one of the essential steps to contain the spread of this disease. Also Read - Akshay Kumar, Piyush Mishra, Sonam Kapoor and more Bollywood celebs who opened up on facing sexual abuse in childhood

Earlier, experts believed that the incubation period of this virus s 4 to 5 days. But now Chinese scientists have come up with a new estimate for the median incubation period of COVID -19, which is around 7.76 days. The study, published in the journal Science Advances, involves the largest amount of coronavirus patient samples to date. Also Read - Test Article 2 Covid 19 3rd wave

New quarantine guidelines may be needed

By providing health authorities with a potentially more accurate figure for the incubation period, the results could inform guidelines for containment efforts such as quarantines and studies investigating the disease’s transmission. Researchers say that countries and health authorities have implemented various containment measures such as quarantines to slow the spread of COVID-19. To work effectively, these strategies depend on understanding the disease’s incubation period, or the time between someone becoming infected and showing the first symptoms of the disease, and how much it varies from individual to individual. However, researchers lack a reliable estimate of the incubation period of COVID-19. The few existing estimates of 4 to 5 days were based on small samples sizes, limited data, and self-reports that could be biased by the memory or judgement of the patient or interviewer. Also Read - COVID-19 Live Updates: Cases in India surge to 10,757,610 while death toll reaches 1,54,392 12d

10 per cent of patients exhibited virus incubation period of 14.28 days

For the current findings, the research team developed a low-cost approach to estimate incubation periods and applied it to 1,084 confirmed cases of COVID-19 that had known histories of travel or residency in Wuhan, China. Their approach improves accuracy by relying on a public database of dates of infection and uses the renewal theory in probability to reduce recall bias — the inaccurate recollection of past events. Ultimately, the team calculated that the median incubation period was 7.75 days, with 10 per cent of patients showing an incubation period of 14.28 days. The authors noted that this last finding may concern health authorities relying on the standard 14-day quarantine, but caution that their approach relies on several assumptions and may not apply to later cases where the virus may have mutated.

(With inputs from IANS)

Published : August 9, 2020 11:55 am | Updated:August 10, 2020 8:57 am

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